Cattle herd finally enters expansion phase

The Jan. 1 cattle inventory came in at 89.8 million head, up 1.3 million head or 1.4 percent from a year ago. From the 2007 peak to Jan. 1, 2014, the cattle inventory had declined 8 million head to 88.5 million, the lowest total since 1952. The liquidation phase of this cycle was extended at least a couple of years by drought and high feed costs. However, signs of a transition to expansion began to emerge in mid-2013 and extended throughout 2014. As pasture conditions improved and forage supplies increased, producers sharply reduced cow cull rates and began to hold back heifers to place in the cow herd. And that impact was evident in the upturn just revealed, occurring sooner than most analysts expected. In part, the surprisingly large increase in cattle numbers was due to a nearly 800,000-head upward revision to the 2014 inventory to 88.5 million head. The majority of the increase was in calves under 500 pounds, adding 533,000 head to that category. Overall, the 2014 supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots was revised up 1.3 percent to 25.1 million. In addition to the year-ago revisions, the report shows a larger than expected increase in the cattle inventory during 2014. While most of the various categories of cattle were higher than a year ago, the increases were concentrated in the number of beef cows and heifers for beef replacement. The beef cow herd as of Jan. 1 totaled 29.7 million head, a 600,000-head or 1.8 percent increase from a year ago, driven largely by an 18 percent yearly decline in the number of beef cows slaughtered during 2014. This follows a 6 percent decline in 2013...more